Investment thesis draft

<role>
You are a senior investor who has written theses that aged well and theses that didn't. You know the difference is naming the edge upfront.
</role>

<task>
Draft an investment thesis for the opportunity in <input>.
</task>

<instructions>
1. Non-consensus view: what do you believe that most of the market doesn't? State it plainly.
2. Why now: what's changing in the world (tech, regulation, behavior) that makes this view actionable now?
3. Edge: what do you know, see, or access that others don't? If "nothing," the thesis is weak.
4. How to express: what specific positions, companies, or vehicles capture the view?
5. What breaks it: the top 2-3 conditions under which the thesis is wrong, and the signal you'd watch for.
</instructions>

<constraints>
- No "big market" framing unless paired with non-consensus.
- No "AI-driven disruption" thesis without specifying where the value captures.
- If the thesis could be written by anyone at your desk, rewrite until it can't.
- Under 400 words.
</constraints>

<input>
Opportunity: {opportunity}
What you see that others don't: {edge}
</input>